Sun 01 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC
Arouca
Rank #5 · 20 pts
1 – 0
Full Time
Nacional
Rank #15 · 7 pts
AI Model Probabilities & Implied Fair Odds
Home Win (1)
49.2%
Fair: 2.03
Draw (X)
27.1%
Fair: 3.69
Away Win (2)
23.7%
Fair: 4.22
Over 2.5 Goals
50.2%
Fair: 1.99
BTTS: Yes
53.7%
Fair: 1.86
2026/27 Quantitative Tale of the Tape
| Arouca | Metric | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| #5 (20 pts) | League Rank & Points | #15 (7 pts) |
| 6W-2D-2L | Season Record (10 MP) | 2W-1D-7L |
| 13 : 7 | Goals For : Against | 10 : 19 |
| 12.5 / 12.8 | Season xG / xGA | 10.7 / 17.4 |
| 14.2 xPTS | Expected Points (xPTS) | 10.1 xPTS |
Multi-Bookmaker Odds & Smart-Money Drop Scanner
16 bookmakers tracked| Bookmaker | Home (1) | Draw (X) | Away (2) | BTTS Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.07 | 5.34 | 1.90 |
| AMBIGUOUS_BRAND_FRA | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 1.05 ↓33.1% | 10.00 | 151.00 | 8.00 |
| Betfred | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.95 | 1.75 |
| Bwin | 1.60 | 3.65 | 5.10 | 1.75 |
| Caliente | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.60 | - |
| Interwetten | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.85 |
| Letsbet | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.95 | 1.75 |
| Novibet | 1.65 | 4.07 | 5.34 ↓6% | 1.90 |
| Paddy Power | 1.07 ↓46.5% | 9.00 | 151.00 | 7.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.80 |
| Tipico | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.70 | 1.93 |
| Unibet | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.95 | 1.75 |
| Unibet / Stake | 1.60 ↓11.1% | 3.65 | 4.90 | 1.75 |
| Winamax | 1.60 | 3.95 | 5.50 | 1.85 |
Recent Head-to-Head Meetings
2026-02-21
3 - 0
2025-09-20
1 - 2
2025-02-01
1 - 2
2024-08-25
1 - 0
2018-05-06
0 - 1