Predictions & Results
Every model pick, grouped by match day. Times shown in Indian/Mauritius.
Market Radar
Upcoming fixtures with model probabilities and bookmaker line movement, grouped by match day. Click a match for odds and details.
Market Radar • Live Odds Drop & Sharp Money Scanner
Live multi-bookmaker line shifts (bet365, 1xBet, Unibet, Tipico) and God Mode signals are exclusive to VIP members.
xG Standings
League tables next to expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPTS). Teams well below their xPTS have been unlucky; teams well above have been riding luck.
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GF:GA | PTS | xG | xGA | xPTS | PTS − xPTS | Corners/G | Big ch. | Box touches | YC |
|---|
How to read this: xPTS is the points a team would expect from the quality of chances it created and conceded. PTS − xPTS of −3 or worse is marked Unlucky (results may improve); +3 or better is marked Overperforming (results may cool off). Click a team for its home/away split and next fixture.
Archive
Completed matches with full-time scores, post-match xG, corners and model pick results, grouped by match day.
How to read this: xG (H–A) is post-match expected goals from shot quality. When xGPANDA had a pick on a completed match, the WON or LOST badge links it to the Predictions & Results record. Click any row for full match stats.
Model Audit
How closely the model’s pre-match probabilities match real full-time outcomes across completed league fixtures.
Benchmark comparison (1X2 Brier score)
Shorter bar = more accurate probabilities. Lower Brier score is better.
Reliability by probability bucket
When the model predicts 60%, home teams should win roughly 60% of the time.
| Predicted bucket | Matches | Model expected | Actual win rate | Delta | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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A Brier score measures how close probability forecasts are to actual results on a scale where 0.00 is perfect and 0.2222 is blind guessing (33.3% home / 33.3% draw / 33.3% away). Beating a basic Poisson model (~0.212) means team xG and form adjustments add real signal; ~0.189 is the benchmark set by sharp closing bookmaker odds.
Historical fixture probabilities in the database were computed using season-to-date standings rather than strict pre-match snapshots, which flatters in-sample scores. Forward pre-match picks are logged separately in the prospective audit ledger before kick-off.
Reviews & Improvement Ideas
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